If you’ve been tracking the 2023 housing scene, you’ve likely come across the term “mortgage rate lock-in effect.” It’s the trend that had homeowners gripping their low pandemic-era mortgage rates tight, discouraging them from entering the high-rate market, which soared as high as 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac. But as we gaze into the crystal ball for 2024, it seems there might be a shift on the horizon.

A Glimmer of Hope with Falling Mortgage Rates

The tail end of the previous year brought a welcomed downtrend in mortgage rates, with a 30-year fixed mortgage averaging 6.61%. This respite reinvigorated the market, as noted by the National Association of Realtors, with a slight uptick in existing home sales, although year-over-year numbers still show a decline.

The Continuous Squeeze on Housing

Despite these optimistic tremors, don’t expect a miraculous surge in housing availability. Danielle Hale from Realtor.com predicts a modest boost from newly constructed single-family homes and multifamily units, yet this won’t significantly tilt the scale on the enduring housing shortage. Odeta Kushi of First American reminds us that the present shortage is a tough nut to crack, as it’s the result of a decade’s worth of underbuilding.

A Diverse Landscape for Home Price Growth

While national home sales might only see a slight rise, the real picture is painted at the local level. Cities like Mesa, Arizona, which saw a surge in 2020-2022, might experience a balancing out of prices, while areas like Southern California could see a rebound if mortgage rates continue to soften.

The Mortgage Rates Roller Coaster

The concord among economists like Daryl Fairweather of Redfin and Jeff Taylor of Mphasis Digital Risk is that mortgage rates will hover in the 6% range, with potential fluctuations due to election year uncertainties.

On the Construction Front

Robert Dietz of the National Association of Home Builders is forecasting a ray of hope for single-family home construction in 2024, marking a potential end to the consecutive years of decline. However, multifamily construction may hit a rough patch due to stringent financing conditions.

The Takeaway for 2024

So, what does all this mean if you’re looking to sell or buy? Adaptability is key. Understanding and leveraging these insights can help you navigate the market more effectively.

Ready to Make Your Move?

Navigating the market requires a steady hand, and that’s where Simpson Realty Group comes in. Mike and Anabel Simpson have 28 years combined experience in multiple states, helping clients navigate through the intricate process of buying and selling. They’re the allies you need to thrive in a market that’s constantly in flux. Whether you’re listing soon or down the road, the Simpsons are ready to pivot with you, ensuring your journey in real estate is as smooth and successful as possible. Interested in a chat about your real estate future? Reach out and let the expertise of Simpson Realty Group lead the way.

📞 Contact Simpson Realty Group:

• Mike and Anabel Simpson
• Phone: 480-SIMPSON (746-7766) 
• Hablo Español: 602-816-4126
• Email: [email protected]

In the ever-evolving tapestry of real estate, 2024 looks to be a year of cautious optimism. With nuanced shifts in mortgage rates and construction, the market beckons both challenges and opportunities. As we forge ahead, it’s the wisdom of experts and the guidance of trusted realtors that will illuminate the path forward. Whether you’re selling or seeking a new home, the time is ripe to consider how these trends can influence your decisions. With the right strategy and support, the coming year can be a season of remarkable transitions in the world of real estate.